Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:04:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
EE 0xee27…eb98 sports 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$78 (+14%) realized +$75 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%23W / 18L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$64
14 days+$97
30 days+$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$57
sports 35% +$44
politics 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +10.6% +0.1% 52% 52% +10.4%
≤30d 41 +16.0% +5.0% 56% 56% +13.6%
≤90d 41 +16.0% +5.0% 56% 56% +13.6%
all 41 +16.0% +5.0% 56% 56% +13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.0% 56% +13.6%
10% -5.1% 56% +2.7%
15% -14.2% 56% -7.2%
20% -22.6% 46% -16.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$75
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses23 / 18
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)41 / 48
History coverage14d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $53 $53 +$1 (+1%)
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 58¢ $41 $43 +$3 (+6%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+23%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 23 $12 −$1 -7%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $54 −$7 -14%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $3 +$9 +258%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$18 +117%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 +$7 +73%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $5 +$5 +101%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +48%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $3 +$4 +101%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $48 +$22 +47%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$18 +58%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$2 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -40%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$10 +99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$8 +50%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $4 −$3 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$4 +75%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 +$8 +78%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 +$3 +131%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +41%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$3 +66%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$6 +221%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$9 +84%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $6 +$7 +109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $6 +$7 +112%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$5 +97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $53 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 SELL No 33¢ $11 2h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 35¢ $47 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 34¢ $12 3h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 74¢ $12 3h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 40¢ $10 4h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 40¢ $20 4h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 40¢ $20 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 97¢ $33 5h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $17 5h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $10 18h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $10 28h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 30h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 22¢ $4 38h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND B BUY 23¢ $5 39h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $3 40h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY 24¢ $5 40h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 2d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $41 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $70 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $48 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 98¢ $48 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $10 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.85 · official $104.85 (match) · 82 history records