Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:13:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EE 0xee2a…729b crypto 1313 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,659 (-47%) realized −$4,668 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%687W / 609L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day44.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 47d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$414
weather 15% −$164
other 7% −$288
sports 2% +$24
world 1% −$63
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 212 -2.6% -11.8% 54% 54% -14.1%
≤30d 552 -10.0% -18.6% 50% 49% -22.5%
≤90d 1296 -7.8% -16.6% 53% 53% -18.0%
all 1296 -7.8% -16.6% 53% 53% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 53% -18.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 49% -25.9%
15% -31.8% 34% -33.0%
20% -38.5% 25% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$4,668
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses687 / 609
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions14
Markets (closed)1296 / 1313
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day44.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 1296 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 24¢ $15 $40 +$26 (+174%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? No 68¢ 64¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? No 62¢ 74¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? No 58¢ 47¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Yes 11¢ 20¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+86%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-44%)
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? No 77¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-33%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Yes 12¢ 5¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-60%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +68%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$6 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +32%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +74%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +73%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $11 −$3 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$45 +90%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $112 −$112 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +54%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 39m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.16 · official $139.16 · 3500 history records