Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:00:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee2c…afee other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 578d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$464 (-29%) realized −$460 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%3W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$273
7 days−$273
14 days−$273
30 days−$273
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$273
other 22% −$129
world 16% −$253
politics 6% −$85
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-60.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -10.6% -19.1% 38% 38% -38.4%
≤30d 8 -10.6% -19.1% 38% 38% -38.4%
≤90d 8 -10.6% -19.1% 38% 38% -38.4%
all 24 -55.9% -60.1% 12% 12% -57.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.1% 12% -57.9%
10% -63.9% 8% -62.0%
15% -67.4% 8% -65.6%
20% -70.6% 8% -69.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -71% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$48 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

578d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized−$460
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses3 / 21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage578d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $219 −$210 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $177 +$34 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $78 +$98 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $54 −$52 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $53 +$142 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $133 −$125 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
GOP wins popular vote by 5-6%? Dec 18 $0 $0 -100%
GOP wins popular vote by 2-3%? Dec 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election? Dec 18 $68 −$68 -100%
GOP wins popular vote by 2.25% or more? Dec 18 $10 −$10 -100%
GOP wins popular vote by 1.75-2.0%? Dec 18 $10 −$10 -100%
GOP wins popular vote by 2.0-2.25%? Dec 18 $10 −$10 -100%
GOP wins popular vote by 4-5%? Dec 18 $10 −$10 -100%
GOP wins popular vote by 3-4%? Dec 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.5% or more? Dec 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2024 F1 season? Nov 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024? Nov 19 $253 −$253 -100%
Will Red Bull win the 2024 F1 Constructor’s Championship? Nov 17 $30 −$9 -29%
Will the Republican candidate win Nevada by 3.0%-4.0%? Nov 17 $10 −$3 -29%
Will Wisconsin be the closest state? Nov 17 $10 −$5 -54%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting? Nov 17 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Trump do better in Florida or Alaska? Nov 17 $10 −$4 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $211 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $176 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.97 · official $195.97 (match) · 111 history records