trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -10.6% | -19.1% | 38% | 38% | -38.4% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -10.6% | -19.1% | 38% | 38% | -38.4% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -10.6% | -19.1% | 38% | 38% | -38.4% |
| all | 24 | -55.9% | -60.1% | 12% | 12% | -57.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -60.1% | 12% | -57.9% |
| 10% | -63.9% | 8% | -62.0% |
| 15% | -67.4% | 8% | -65.6% |
| 20% | -70.6% | 8% | -69.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | $100 | $99 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? | Yes | 18¢ | 18¢ | $100 | $97 | −$3 (-3%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET | Jun 17 | $219 | −$210 | -96% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET | Jun 17 | $177 | +$34 | +19% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET | Jun 17 | $78 | +$98 | +126% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET | Jun 17 | $54 | −$52 | -97% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET | Jun 17 | $57 | −$55 | -97% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET | Jun 17 | $53 | +$142 | +270% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET | Jun 17 | $133 | −$125 | -94% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET | Jun 17 | $105 | −$105 | -100% |
| GOP wins popular vote by 5-6%? | Dec 18 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| GOP wins popular vote by 2-3%? | Dec 18 | $40 | −$40 | -100% |
| Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election? | Dec 18 | $68 | −$68 | -100% |
| GOP wins popular vote by 2.25% or more? | Dec 18 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| GOP wins popular vote by 1.75-2.0%? | Dec 18 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| GOP wins popular vote by 2.0-2.25%? | Dec 18 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| GOP wins popular vote by 4-5%? | Dec 18 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| GOP wins popular vote by 3-4%? | Dec 18 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.5% or more? | Dec 05 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Lando Norris win the 2024 F1 season? | Nov 24 | $21 | −$21 | -100% |
| Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024? | Nov 19 | $253 | −$253 | -100% |
| Will Red Bull win the 2024 F1 Constructor’s Championship? | Nov 17 | $30 | −$9 | -29% |
| Will the Republican candidate win Nevada by 3.0%-4.0%? | Nov 17 | $10 | −$3 | -29% |
| Will Wisconsin be the closest state? | Nov 17 | $10 | −$5 | -54% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting? | Nov 17 | $20 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will Trump do better in Florida or Alaska? | Nov 17 | $10 | −$4 | -41% |