Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:03:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
EE 0xee2d…4e12 crypto 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$556 (+1%) realized −$451 · open +$1,007
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate75%41W / 14L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$784per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$6,307now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$199
7 days+$388
14 days−$75
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$435
other 10% +$694
sports 0% +$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +97.4% +78.6% 100% 100% +43.1%
≤30d 9 +70.9% +54.6% 78% 78% -12.2%
≤90d 9 +70.9% +54.6% 78% 78% -12.2%
all 55 +12.5% +1.7% 75% 47% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.7% 47% -10.8%
10% -8.0% 31% -19.4%
15% -16.9% 22% -27.2%
20% -25.0% 18% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$373 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$6,307
Realized−$451
Unrealized+$1,007
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses41 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)55 / 59
History coverage166d
Avg bet$784
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 85¢ 88¢ $3,000 $3,088 +$88 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $2,000 $2,922 +$922 (+46%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 +$120 +59%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $152 +$79 +52%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 +$26 +259%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$88 +44%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $68 +$152 +223%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $607 −$351 -58%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $702 −$700 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $507 +$436 +86%
Solana Up or Down - January 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jan 18 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 8AM ET Jan 18 $1,442 +$75 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jan 17 $100 +$106 +106%
Solana Up or Down - January 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jan 17 $171 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jan 15 $500 +$379 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jan 15 $3,121 −$2,159 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jan 14 $59 −$23 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 13 $802 +$16 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 13 $451 +$34 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 9AM ET Jan 13 $2,710 +$385 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jan 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 6AM ET Jan 13 $3,000 −$443 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jan 13 $1,706 −$203 -12%
XRP Up or Down - January 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jan 13 $1,000 +$248 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jan 13 $1,000 −$829 -83%
Solana Up or Down - January 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jan 13 $100 +$79 +79%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jan 13 $1,000 +$74 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jan 12 $200 +$40 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 12 $646 +$139 +22%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jan 12 $1,000 +$55 +6%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jan 12 $1,000 +$83 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jan 12 $74 −$43 -58%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 5AM ET Jan 12 $495 +$139 +28%
Solana Up or Down - January 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jan 11 $1,000 +$131 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 5PM ET Jan 11 $2,000 +$132 +7%
Solana Up or Down - January 11, 5PM ET Jan 11 $1,000 +$53 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jan 11 $1,000 +$90 +9%
Solana Up or Down - January 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jan 11 $191 +$126 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jan 11 $2,876 +$76 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jan 11 $1,000 +$126 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jan 11 $449 −$15 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 10AM ET Jan 10 $1,300 +$179 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 10, 10AM ET Jan 10 $200 −$182 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 6AM ET Jan 10 $991 +$98 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jan 10 $300 +$57 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jan 09 $300 +$86 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jan 09 $200 +$32 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jan 09 $1,234 +$121 +10%
Solana Up or Down - January 9, 6AM ET Jan 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 8, 12PM ET Jan 08 $100 +$35 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 12PM ET Jan 08 $1,494 +$152 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $322 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 85¢ $3,013 36h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL No 99¢ $37 2d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 27¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $152 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 6d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $220 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 25¢ $56 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $200 7d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $68 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $702 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $607 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $507 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $2,055 21d
Solana Up or Down - January 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $100 155d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 8AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1,517 155d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 8AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1,442 155d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $206 156d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $100 156d
Solana Up or Down - January 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $177 156d
Solana Up or Down - January 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $171 156d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $500 158d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $962 158d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $3,121 158d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $35 159d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $59 159d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,307.14 · official $6,307.17 (match) · 148 history records