Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:10:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee2e…8aea crypto 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-2%) realized −$15 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$48
crypto 28% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -21.2% -28.7% 55% 36% -21.3%
≤30d 11 -21.2% -28.7% 55% 36% -21.3%
≤90d 11 -21.2% -28.7% 55% 36% -21.3%
all 11 -21.2% -28.7% 55% 36% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.7% 36% -21.3%
10% ← realistic here -35.5% 18% -28.8%
15% -41.8% 18% -35.7%
20% -47.5% 9% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$37 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Baltimore Orioles 83¢ 82¢ $151 $149 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 24 $156 −$5 -3%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $98 +$58 +60%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 24 $97 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $78 +$16 +21%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $128 −$101 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 24 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $31 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Baltimore Orioles 83¢ $152 14m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 50¢ $152 18m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 50¢ $156 25m
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $157 27m
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 62¢ $98 37m
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 71¢ $98 44m
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 69¢ $97 52m
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $27 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $32 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $23 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $128 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.49 · official $144.93 · 27 history records