Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:20:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee2e…1dcd world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate43%18W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% +$1
world 17% −$2
other 13% +$6
sports 9% −$8
tech 2% −$1
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.9% -11.2% 43% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -1.5% -10.9% 33% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 21 -0.9% -10.4% 24% 0% -9.5%
all 42 -1.6% -11.0% 43% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 7% -9.8%
10% -19.5% 7% -18.4%
15% -27.3% 5% -26.3%
20% -34.4% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses18 / 24
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage527d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 84¢ 84¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $1 $0 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 -7%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $41 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $4 $0 -5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $28 −$2 -6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $97 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 25 $29 −$1 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $95 +$4 +4%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $42 $0 -1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $256 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $232 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $233 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y Mar 31 $158 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $256 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Jun 26 $6 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon less than 250 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days May 07 $3 −$1 -23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? May 07 $1 $0 -0%
Trump-Putin-Xi meeting before July? Apr 21 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 20 $6 $0 +1%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 18 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $8 $0 -1%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win The 2025 Masters? Apr 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? Mar 21 $9 $0 +4%
Liberty vs. New Mexico State Mar 04 $4 +$4 +85%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 38-39°F on February Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Utah vs. Hurricanes Feb 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Feb 04 $12 $0 +4%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Jan 24 $4 +$2 +42%
Will Jeremiah Smith score a touchdown AND Quinn Ewers NOT throw an int Jan 11 $8 +$3 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $40 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $17 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $17 11h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $10 18h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $27 18h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $15 22h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $13 22h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $8 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 27h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 46h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 46h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $3 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $28 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $10 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $37 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $41 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $41 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $3 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $3 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $0 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $2 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $1 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $1 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $41 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.08 · official $40.08 (match) · 124 history records