Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:16:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee2f…abda other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate46%17W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$1
other 33% $0
politics 15% −$1
crypto 9% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 7 -1.4% -10.8% 14% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 7 -1.4% -10.8% 14% 0% -9.8%
all 37 +0.2% -9.3% 46% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 3% -9.7%
10% -18.0% 3% -18.4%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage447d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $49 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $62 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $61 +$1 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $44 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $25 −$1 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Dec 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 27 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 06 $11 $0 +1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by less than 5%? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win less than 2% of the vote in the South Korea elec Jun 01 $1 $0 +24%
Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? Jun 01 $3 $0 -1%
Will Aaron Rodgers retire? Jun 01 $12 $0 -3%
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 23–30? May 31 $12 $0 +3%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? May 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend May 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before June? May 22 $8 $0 -4%
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Romanian presidential election be betwe May 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Tennessee Titans? May 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Canadian federal election be between 19 May 11 $20 −$1 -7%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 11 $20 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 10 $41 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair? May 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 08 $21 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1500 and $1600 on May 9? May 08 $21 $0 +1%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 07 $20 $0 +1%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 43.0% on May 2? May 06 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 30 $8 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Apr 29 $23 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $49 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $17 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $0 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $18 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $49 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $49 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $39 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $5 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $2 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $28 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $14 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $22 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $22 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $44 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 62¢ $9 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 62¢ $14 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $31 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $31 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $32 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $32 13d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $8 360d
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $2 365d
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $11 381d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.41 · official $48.41 (match) · 113 history records