Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:56:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
EE 0xee31…4735 world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$10,412 (+6%) realized +$9,156 · open +$1,256
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate77%17W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$4,251per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$29,099now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$433
14 days−$944
30 days+$2,451
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% +$4,946
politics 8% +$5,059
other 4% +$6
crypto 2% +$122
finance 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -7.9% -16.7% 67% 22% -14.1%
≤30d 17 -7.2% -16.0% 71% 24% -6.8%
≤90d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 77% 32% -3.6%
all 22 -0.1% -9.6% 77% 32% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 32% -3.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 23% -12.9%
15% -26.1% 9% -21.3%
20% -33.4% 5% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$4,996) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$643 vs −$411 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.32 per $1 lost it wins $5.32
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$29,099
Realized+$9,156
Unrealized+$1,256
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses17 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions20
Markets (closed)22 / 42
History coverage75d
Avg bet$4,251
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? No 94¢ 98¢ $6,026 $6,264 +$237 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 87¢ 94¢ $4,359 $4,690 +$331 (+8%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $4,516 $4,632 +$116 (+3%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No 89¢ 96¢ $3,743 $4,036 +$292 (+8%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $2,468 $2,481 +$13 (+1%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $2,231 $2,250 +$18 (+1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 98¢ $1,833 $2,046 +$212 (+12%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 97¢ $527 $538 +$10 (+2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 93¢ $446 $465 +$19 (+4%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 88¢ 88¢ $467 $463 −$4 (-1%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $281 $300 +$19 (+7%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 95¢ 97¢ $286 $291 +$5 (+2%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $180 $179 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 76¢ $172 $153 −$19 (-11%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 90¢ 92¢ $135 $139 +$4 (+3%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 93¢ 100¢ $46 $50 +$3 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $47 $48 +$2 (+3%)
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? No 73¢ 72¢ $39 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes 73¢ 70¢ $38 $36 −$1 (-4%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 83¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,092 +$16 +2%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $92 +$1 +1%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $644 +$50 +8%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $167 −$93 -56%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 +$2 +24%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4,260 +$141 +3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $798 −$661 -83%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1,214 −$3 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 16 $385 +$112 +29%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $413 +$9 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $1,054 +$146 +14%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $1,532 −$1,142 -74%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $1,356 −$157 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 12 $16,796 +$632 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $24,740 +$460 +2%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $2,353 +$43 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 31 $24,482 +$2,892 +12%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 30 $23,361 +$1,120 +5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 16 $18,391 +$250 +1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 13 $4,996 +$2,544 +51%
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parl Apr 13 $4,955 +$1,112 +22%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 13 $3,438 +$1,404 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $77 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $181 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $1,108 1h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? BUY No 89¢ $119 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $5 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $96 1h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $19 2h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $46 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $188 2h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $19 2h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $96 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 98¢ $294 2h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $883 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $208 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $180 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $182 9h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $254 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $470 9h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1,294 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $93 11h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $93 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $111 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $46 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $91 12h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 93¢ $47 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $274 12h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $126 12h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $51 16h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $92 16h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $188 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29,098.78 · official $29,098.81 (match) · 173 history records