Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:20:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EE 0xee32…046c crypto 620 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$775 (-2%) realized −$734 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate75%463W / 156L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,412now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1,128
30 days−$1,161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$1,423
other 12% −$39
world 1% +$17
politics 0% +$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 141 -18.8% -26.5% 65% 47% -25.9%
≤90d 619 +2.6% -7.2% 75% 63% -12.6%
all 619 +2.6% -7.2% 75% 63% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 63% -12.6%
10% -16.0% 41% -21.0%
15% -24.2% 22% -28.6%
20% -31.6% 7% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$51 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$4,412
Realized−$734
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses463 / 156
Open positions1
Markets (closed)619 / 620
History coverage74d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 619 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $4,452 $4,412 −$41 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 10 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 09 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 09 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 09 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 09 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 09 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 09 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 09 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 09 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 09 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 09 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 09 $76 −$75 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 09 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 09 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 09 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 09 $102 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 09 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 09 $76 +$21 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 09 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$17 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 09 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 09 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 09 $51 +$20 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 09 $151 −$45 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 09 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 09 $51 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 09 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 09 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 09 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $125 −$23 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 09 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 09 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 09 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 09 $50 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 09 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 09 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 09 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 08 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $963 1h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $963 4d
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $16 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,411.64 · official $4,411.64 (match) · 1502 history records