Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:05:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EE 0xee39…d66a sports 667 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 127d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$590 (-13%) realized −$589 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%348W / 317L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$90
7 days−$75
14 days−$24
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$21
other 23% −$493
crypto 7% −$36
world 2% −$76
weather 1% +$3
culture 0% +$5
tech 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -5.4% -14.4% 52% 52% -14.8%
≤30d 78 +1.3% -8.3% 58% 58% -11.1%
≤90d 175 -2.0% -11.3% 56% 56% -25.7%
all 665 -4.1% -13.2% 52% 48% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 48% -22.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 44% -29.5%
15% -29.1% 41% -36.3%
20% -36.0% 35% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$589
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses348 / 317
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)665 / 667
History coverage127d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 665 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Over 43¢ 46¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+8%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 38¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $41 +$19 +48%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 +$3 +32%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$5 +52%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa Jun 19 $102 +$45 +44%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 +$14 +91%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $77 +$46 +60%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$6 +56%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$33 +64%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +65%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $10 +$11 +109%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 +$26 +86%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +37%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 +$19 +60%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$10 +94%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$4 +39%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$6 -53%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$7 +71%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $102 −$56 -55%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $12 +$9 +74%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$7 +335%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$4 +39%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $66 +$60 +91%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $10 +$8 +74%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +41%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $10 +$2 +24%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +62%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $10 +$8 +75%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $10 +$4 +35%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$3 +27%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $10 +$6 +60%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $10 +$6 +57%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $12 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $48 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL No 74¢ $12 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $31 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $10 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL No 99¢ $13 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 73¢ $10 4h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 33¢ $10 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $16 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 13h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa BUY Linda Noskova 68¢ $102 25h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 27h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $10 27h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $15 33h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 36h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 98¢ $16 2d
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 61¢ $77 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 61¢ $10 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $84 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $51 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $17 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 68¢ $70 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $31 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $10 2d
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 100¢ $21 2d
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 46¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.17 · official $21.31 (match) · 3500 history records