Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:56:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee3a…6d47 sports 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13 (-8%) realized −$12 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%48W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$4
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$4
sports 48% −$8
world 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -8.1% -16.8% 56% 56% -12.3%
≤30d 35 -10.2% -18.7% 54% 54% -14.4%
≤90d 93 -10.6% -19.1% 52% 52% -18.6%
all 93 -10.6% -19.1% 52% 52% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 52% -18.6%
10% -26.9% 52% -26.4%
15% -33.9% 52% -33.5%
20% -40.4% 43% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses48 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)93 / 94
History coverage62d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 26¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +69%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +40%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 +$3 +160%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3 +$1 +40%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $4 +$2 +64%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +74%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -69%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +51%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +56%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +42%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $22 +$8 +39%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +51%
France vs. Northern Ireland: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 08 $2 +$1 +54%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 +$1 +74%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $1 +$1 +53%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Everton FC vs. Sunderland AFC: Both Teams to Score May 17 $1 +$1 +74%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $2 +$1 +76%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Southampton FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 2.5 May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (-1.5) May 09 $1 +$1 +78%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $1 +$1 +72%
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $1 +$1 +72%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5) May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 58m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 8h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $1 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 20h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $5 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $3 23h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $2 23h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $6 23h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $4 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1 29h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 64¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $1 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $3 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $2 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $2 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $5 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $2 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $2 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 97¢ $4 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $3 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.32 · official $1.27 (match) · 191 history records