trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +2.6% | -7.2% | 100% | 0% | -7.2% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +99.1% | +80.1% | 80% | 20% | -1.1% |
| ≤90d | 14 | +4.8% | -5.2% | 57% | 21% | -14.2% |
| all | 24 | +4.2% | -5.7% | 67% | 25% | -11.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -5.7% | 25% | -11.3% |
| 10% | -14.8% | 12% | -19.8% |
| 15% | -23.0% | 4% | -27.5% |
| 20% | -30.5% | 4% | -34.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 85¢ | 82¢ | $2,691 | $2,570 | −$121 (-5%) |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | No | 93¢ | 98¢ | $1,234 | $1,301 | +$68 (+5%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 8¢ | 7¢ | $62 | $49 | −$12 (-20%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 17 | $1,199 | +$22 | +2% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? | Jun 12 | $1,162 | +$39 | +3% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 07 | $1,163 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | Jun 05 | $806 | +$15 | +2% |
| Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | Jun 05 | $68 | +$333 | +488% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee | Apr 30 | $536 | +$151 | +28% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m | Apr 30 | $3,687 | +$122 | +3% |
| Will Tessa Thompson win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? | Apr 02 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| TikTok sale announced by March 31? | Apr 02 | $1,280 | −$1,280 | -100% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? | Apr 02 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 | Apr 02 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the December meeting? | Apr 02 | $70 | −$70 | -100% |
| Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 202 | Apr 02 | $292 | +$100 | +34% |
| No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? | Mar 20 | $442 | +$23 | +5% |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Feb 13 | $586 | −$5 | -1% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | Feb 13 | $2 | $0 | +11% |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the February 2026 meeting? | Jan 22 | $572 | +$6 | +1% |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? | Jan 06 | $188 | +$1 | +0% |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 me | Dec 30 | $16 | −$1 | -6% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 16 | $1,370 | +$205 | +15% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Nov 29 | $1,275 | +$9 | +1% |
| Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | Nov 29 | $150 | +$18 | +12% |
| Over $1.3B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | Nov 03 | $500 | +$4 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? | Nov 03 | $921 | +$3 | +0% |