Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:45:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EE 0xee47…fb59 other 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate7%8W / 111L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$14
politics 38% −$13
sports 4% +$15
crypto 3% −$1
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 108 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 5% -9.4%
all 119 -1.5% -10.9% 7% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 7% -9.6%
10% -19.4% 4% -18.2%
15% -27.2% 4% -26.1%
20% -34.3% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$1 · ×12.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses8 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)119 / 120
History coverage115d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $199 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $427 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $232 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $233 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $239 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $18 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $197 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $153 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $200 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $172 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $178 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $178 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $565 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $200 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $199 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $426 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $205 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $205 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $360 −$1 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $176 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $163 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $200 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $184 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $389 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $224 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $192 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $170 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $224 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $164 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $192 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? Apr 22 $164 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $383 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 20 $196 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $218 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $177 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $389 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $190 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $156 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $198 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $386 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $395 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 7h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 7h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 47h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $19 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $19 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 7d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $24 10d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 11d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 11d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 11d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 12d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 13d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $22 14d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $22 15d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 22d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 22d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 22d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 22d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $197 22d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $197 25d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $211 25d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $211 26d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $153 26d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $153 26d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $200 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.99 · official $32.99 (match) · 375 history records