Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:51:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EE 0xee4e…94f8 crypto 172 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$50 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%63W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$86
7 days−$362
14 days−$146
30 days−$146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$260
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 +6.0% -4.1% 42% 35% -22.8%
≤30d 112 +11.0% +0.4% 43% 38% -13.9%
≤90d 171 -4.4% -13.5% 37% 33% -15.8%
all 171 -4.4% -13.5% 37% 33% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 33% -15.8%
10% -21.8% 27% -23.9%
15% -29.3% 24% -31.2%
20% -36.2% 22% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$12 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$50
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses63 / 108
Open positions1
Markets (closed)171 / 172
History coverage58d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 6¢ 1¢ $36 $3 −$33 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $132 −$64 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $68 +$39 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $22 +$15 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$50 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $22 +$8 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $22 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $42 +$14 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$13 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $62 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$13 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $46 +$12 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $44 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $42 −$13 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$7 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $28 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $44 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $63 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $42 −$16 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $41 −$12 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $41 +$30 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $109 +$62 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $32 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $60 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $32 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $39 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $30 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $64 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $58 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $63 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $7 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $101 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $63 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $16 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $16 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $28 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $16 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $68 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $4 32m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.46 · official $3.14 (match) · 454 history records