Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:52:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EE 0xee4f…c0f0 sports 209 markets active 19h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,309 (-9%) realized −$2,293 · open −$16
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%80W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$99est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$234now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$662
7 days+$1,304
14 days+$1,304
30 days+$387
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$752
crypto 16% −$652
other 9% −$463
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +24.8% +12.9% 46% 46% +49.9%
≤30d 17 -4.6% -13.7% 35% 35% +2.6%
≤90d 46 +5.8% -4.2% 46% 46% +11.8%
all 201 -12.0% -20.4% 40% 40% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 40% -17.0%
10% -28.0% 38% -25.0%
15% -35.0% 35% -32.2%
20% -41.3% 31% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$91 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$234
Realized−$2,293
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses80 / 121
Est. fees paid−$99
Open positions1
Markets (closed)201 / 209
History coverage158d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Mexico 23¢ 22¢ $250 $234 −$16 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 97 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Ghana (-2.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $256 −$250 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Arge Jun 17 $255 +$567 +222%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $305 +$445 +146%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $261 +$253 +97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $284 +$225 +79%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $76 −$75 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $102 +$352 +344%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 +$136 +134%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $199 −$195 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $116 −$114 -98%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $515 −$508 -98%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry May 17 $354 +$207 +58%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $198 +$170 +86%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $145 +$211 +145%
UFC Fight Night: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards (Light Heavy May 17 $109 +$37 +34%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $141 −$139 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Bernardo Sopaj vs. Timmy Cuamba (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $76 −$75 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $102 +$423 +413%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $207 +$301 +145%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $84 +$60 +71%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 18 $50 −$1 -1%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 18 $60 −$1 -1%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 18 $59 +$21 +36%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 18 $56 +$24 +44%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) Apr 15 $155 +$50 +32%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $150 +$82 +54%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $35 −$34 -98%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 15 $185 +$110 +59%
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5 Apr 14 $50 −$49 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $76 +$125 +165%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $150 −$148 -98%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $114 −$113 -98%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 12 $100 −$99 -99%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 12 $50 −$49 -98%
UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $27 −$27 -98%
UFC 327: Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr (Featherweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? Apr 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? Apr 06 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 06 $11 +$19 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Mar 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Penguins (-1.5) Mar 08 $60 +$28 +47%
Spread: Kings (-1.5) Mar 08 $80 +$36 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Mar 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 18h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 23¢ $256 19h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 AND Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY 18¢ $77 19h
Spread: Ghana (-2.5) BUY Ghana $51 22h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 20¢ $256 22h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will A BUY $30 41h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 16¢ $167 41h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 35¢ $153 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Arge BUY 30¢ $255 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $305 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 46¢ $76 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 23¢ $102 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $261 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 20¢ $102 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $284 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 22¢ $102 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $238 4d
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 48¢ $355 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 13¢ $51 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $102 5d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 35¢ $199 20d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 43¢ $116 24d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Rico 20¢ $102 25d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 50¢ $515 26d
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry SELL Perry 100¢ $561 32d
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry BUY Perry 66¢ $152 32d
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry BUY Perry 60¢ $202 32d
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai SELL Arnold Allen 100¢ $368 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $233.70 · official $233.70 (match) · 443 history records