Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:11:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee52…160a other 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 388d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$9 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate34%22W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$5
other 31% −$4
politics 3% +$1
finance 3% −$1
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.3% -11.6% 12% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 23 -1.0% -10.4% 17% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 24 -5.1% -14.1% 17% 0% -10.5%
all 65 -3.3% -12.5% 34% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 0% -10.2%
10% -20.9% 0% -18.8%
15% -28.6% 0% -26.6%
20% -35.6% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

388d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses22 / 43
Open positions2
Markets (closed)65 / 67
History coverage388d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 75¢ 74¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 47¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $40 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $37 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $12 −$1 -11%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $8 $0 +6%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $13 −$2 -12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $86 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $83 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $39 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $44 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $35 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $81 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $15 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $44 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $45 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $17 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $41 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 04 $7 $0 -1%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $8 $0 +3%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 14 $8 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Jul 13 $8 $0 +2%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 13 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 13 $2 $0 -28%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 13 $2 $0 +5%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 13 $19 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 12 $11 $0 +2%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will 'Superman' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Jul 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in July? Jul 11 $11 $0 -3%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jul 11 $16 $0 -2%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $2 $0 +6%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -86%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 16 $1 $0 -17%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $36 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $21 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $18 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $40 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $7 14h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $37 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $11 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $12 28h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $8 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $0 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $3 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $43 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $44 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $43 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $43 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.54 · official $35.76 (match) · 226 history records