Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:44:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
EE 0xee56…bba5 crypto 186 markets active 1h ago coverage 691d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,015 (-8%) realized −$2,694 · open −$321
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%68W / 117L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$665now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days+$1,005
14 days+$1,005
30 days+$921
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$1,511
other 7% −$613
politics 5% −$227
world 2% −$510
tech 1% −$557
weather 0% −$81
sports 0% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +19.1% +7.7% 43% 43% +14.8%
≤30d 8 +4.2% -5.7% 38% 38% +12.2%
≤90d 10 +41.1% +27.7% 50% 50% +15.0%
all 185 -5.6% -14.6% 37% 33% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 33% -17.1%
10% -22.7% 29% -25.1%
15% -30.2% 25% -32.3%
20% -37.1% 22% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +1% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$92 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

691d coverage
Net worth$665
Realized−$2,694
Unrealized−$321
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses68 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)185 / 186
History coverage691d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? Down 88¢ 60¢ $986 $665 −$321 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? Jun 29 $587 −$95 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? Jun 27 $483 +$61 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $392 −$383 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $245 −$154 -63%
Solana Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $105 −$89 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? Jun 26 $319 +$1,117 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $1,623 +$547 +34%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $88 −$84 -96%
Will Joshua Van win by KO or TKO? May 16 $30 +$71 +238%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 16 $50 +$70 +140%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 04 $500 −$500 -100%
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? Jul 31 $525 −$519 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 29? Jul 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 25 $12 −$11 -93%
Bitcoin above $120,000 on July 25? Jul 24 $70 −$31 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 24? Jul 24 $139 −$78 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 23? Jul 23 $79 −$15 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 22? Jul 22 $80 +$249 +313%
MicroStrategy purchases >5000 BTC July 15-21? Jul 22 $194 +$161 +83%
Bitcoin above $118,000 on July 18? Jul 18 $357 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 18? Jul 18 $218 −$120 -55%
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18? Jul 18 $50 +$12 +25%
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 11–18? Jul 18 $59 −$10 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 17? Jul 17 $90 −$16 -18%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in July? Jul 14 $66 +$35 +53%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 8-14? Jul 14 $50 −$28 -55%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7? Jul 07 $200 +$177 +89%
Will Trump say "Nuclear weapon" during his NATO speech? Jul 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? Jul 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Israel strike on Iran on June 25? Jul 06 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June? Jul 06 $1,198 −$1,198 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET Jun 24 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 13–20? Jun 24 $9 +$5 +52%
Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 13–20? Jun 24 $50 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 19 $3,514 −$34 -1%
Israel strike on Iran on June 17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 17 $45 +$31 +70%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 10-16? Jun 16 $750 +$74 +10%
MicroStrategy purchases >8000 BTC June 10-16? Jun 16 $1,000 +$351 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $36 +$9 +26%
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile by Friday? Jun 15 $151 −$151 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $809 +$35 +4%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $500 −$316 -63%
Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before July? Jun 11 $15 −$6 -38%
Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before July? Jun 11 $311 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1,853 +$323 +18%
Solana Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $100 −$60 -60%
XRP Up or Down on June 10? Jun 11 $848 −$295 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 89¢ $752 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 85¢ $242 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? SELL Up 14¢ $227 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 75¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 75¢ $258 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 75¢ $300 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 75¢ $300 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 75¢ $73 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 76¢ $138 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 76¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 76¢ $56 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 76¢ $154 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? SELL Down 25¢ $157 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 27¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 27¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 38¢ $40 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 35¢ $12 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 35¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 35¢ $23 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 43¢ $43 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 37¢ $39 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 39¢ $12 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 39¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 39¢ $13 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 39¢ $8 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 39¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 39¢ $18 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? BUY Down 93¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? BUY Down 96¢ $441 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? SELL Up 4¢ $30 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $665.02 · official $665.02 (match) · 1084 history records