Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:48:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EE 0xee57…0a0c crypto 14 markets active 7d ago coverage 182d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$9 (-25%) realized −$8 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$3
other 17% $0
sports 8% −$2
tech 6% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-34.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.7% -10.2% 83% 83% -20.1%
≤30d 6 -0.7% -10.2% 83% 83% -20.1%
≤90d 7 -14.9% -23.0% 71% 71% -23.2%
all 13 -28.0% -34.9% 46% 46% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.9% 46% -25.7%
10% -41.1% 15% -32.8%
15% -46.8% 8% -39.3%
20% -52.0% 8% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage182d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Theo James announced as next James Bond? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +25%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Elche CF end in a draw? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Mar 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 10 $1 $0 -22%
Will Athletic Club vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Mar 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-08? Mar 07 $3 +$2 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $3 6d
Theo James announced as next James Bond? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 46d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 88d
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Elche CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 94d
Will FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 98d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 98d
Will FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 98d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 98d
Will Athletic Club vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 101d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-08? SELL Yes 86¢ $5 101d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-08? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 101d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 188d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.10 · official $0.10 (match) · 27 history records