Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:08:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EE 0xee5a…55fb weather 209 markets active 0h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$108 (+0%) realized +$89 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%82W / 121L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$244now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$33
14 days−$37
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 60% +$54
world 10% +$7
politics 8% +$4
crypto 5% +$45
other 5% −$1
economics 4% −$21
finance 3% +$3
sports 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -8.1% -16.9% 4% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 59 -3.6% -12.8% 14% 2% -9.4%
≤90d 186 +5.8% -4.3% 40% 3% -9.4%
all 203 +5.3% -4.7% 40% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 2% -9.4%
10% -13.8% 2% -18.1%
15% -22.2% 2% -26.0%
20% -29.8% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$244
Realized+$89
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses82 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)203 / 209
History coverage148d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $148 $147 −$1 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 19? Yes 71¢ 100¢ $36 $50 +$14 (+41%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 20? Yes 65¢ 77¢ $32 $38 +$6 (+19%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 20? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+25%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 20? Yes 1¢ 8¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+650%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 19? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 20? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 20? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 21? Jun 20 $2 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $38 −$2 -5%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $708 −$17 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 19 $1 $0 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 19? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 20? Jun 19 $9 $0 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $19 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $82 −$2 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 $0 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $219 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $18 −$3 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -73%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $50 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 14 $27 −$3 -13%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will General Mills (GIS) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 -4%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $300 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $59 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 12? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 12? Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $246 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 9? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun Jun 09 $50 $0 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026? Jun 09 $58 $0 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will Monte qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $200 $0 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $111 −$1 -0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $200 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 19m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 20? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $150 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 21? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 21? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 20? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 20? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 20? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 20? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 20? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 20? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 65¢ $33 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 4h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $36 20h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $38 20h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $99 20h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 20h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 48¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 48¢ $1 22h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 19? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 29h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 20? SELL Yes 45¢ $9 29h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 20? BUY Yes 45¢ $9 29h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 92¢ $46 29h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 19? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 29h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 19? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 29h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $98 3d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $102 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? SELL No 39¢ $20 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 17? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.60 · official $243.81 (match) · 786 history records