Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:17:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee5b…6892 crypto 296 markets active 6d ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$17 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate54%150W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$36
sports 19% −$3
politics 2% −$13
tech 1% −$9
weather 1% −$3
other 1% +$4
world 0% −$2
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -10.0% -18.6% 20% 0% -21.2%
≤30d 6 -25.0% -32.2% 17% 0% -47.7%
≤90d 276 -7.7% -16.5% 54% 37% -10.9%
all 276 -7.7% -16.5% 54% 37% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 37% -10.9%
10% -24.5% 25% -19.4%
15% -31.8% 18% -27.2%
20% -38.5% 10% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses150 / 126
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions20
Markets (closed)276 / 296
History coverage59d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 276 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-39%)
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Mesías Guevara win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1 $0 -8%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1 $0 -18%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $3 $0 -13%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -18%
Spread: IK Start (-1.5) May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev? May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 05 $7 −$3 -41%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $8 −$8 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $1 +$4 +360%
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 27 $1 $0 -7%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $2 $0 -14%
Spread: SK Brann (-2.5) Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 25? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-1.5) Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on April 22? Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: IK Start (-2.5) Apr 22 $2 −$2 -84%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $2 $0 -10%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Andrea Pellegrino vs Martin Damm Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Karl Vilips win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? Apr 19 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 19 $2 $0 -1%
Will Hugo Pierre win the 2026 London Borough of Tower Hamlets mayoral Apr 19 $2 $0 -2%
Will Rachel Anderson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virg Apr 19 $2 $0 -1%
Will Anna-Karin Hatt be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Apr 18 $2 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $6 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $4 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $2 $0 -1%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $4 $0 -0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Apr 18 $2 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market Apr 18 $2 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Apr 18 $2 $0 -1%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $2 $0 -0%
Will Stefanos Tsitsipas win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $2 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $2 $0 -1%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $2 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $2 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $2 $0 -0%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $2 $0 -1%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $2 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $2 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 6d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 43d
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Pistons vs. Magic SELL Magic 76¢ $5 50d
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 3¢ $1 51d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 51d
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-04-24? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 53d
Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-1.5) BUY Racing Club de Lens 39¢ $1 53d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 25? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 53d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 53d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on April 22? BUY No 0¢ $1 55d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on April 22? BUY No 0¢ $1 55d
Spread: IK Start (-2.5) SELL IK Start 11¢ $0 55d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 55d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 57d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 57d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.79 · official $26.76 (match) · 1268 history records