Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EE 0xee5e…e5a7 crypto 229 markets active 4d ago coverage 584d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$263 (-2%) realized −$173 · open −$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%99W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$780
14 days−$780
30 days−$780
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$974
other 7% +$249
sports 3% +$214
world 1% +$63
politics 0% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 190 +8.4% -1.9% 42% 42% -18.3%
≤30d 190 +8.4% -1.9% 42% 42% -18.3%
≤90d 190 +8.4% -1.9% 42% 42% -18.3%
all 228 +6.0% -4.1% 43% 39% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 39% -12.3%
10% -13.3% 39% -20.7%
15% -21.7% 38% -28.4%
20% -29.3% 36% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$41 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

584d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$173
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses99 / 129
Open positions1
Markets (closed)228 / 229
History coverage584d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 228 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Yes 18¢ 2¢ $100 $10 −$90 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $155 −$152 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $129 −$125 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $81 −$52 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $78 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$24 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $58 −$56 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$171 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $79 +$80 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$50 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $88 −$85 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $81 −$45 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $81 −$77 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $88 +$57 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$148 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$22 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $65 +$97 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $79 +$171 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$90 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $65 −$62 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$29 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $57 +$73 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$11 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$85 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$104 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$61 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $129 −$125 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $78 +$69 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $63 −$61 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$46 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $29 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.94 · official $9.94 (match) · 775 history records