Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:43:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee67…88df world 252 markets active 0h ago coverage 117d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 117d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15,071 (-2%) realized −$15,535 · open +$464
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate79%184W / 50L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,317per market
Trades / day27.1pace
Fees−$210est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$18,208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 117d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% +$8,532
other 19% −$4,506
sports 4% +$6,751
politics 3% +$319
finance 2% −$22
crypto 0% +$248
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -4.6% -13.7% 81% 34% -7.2%
≤30d 60 -0.3% -9.8% 87% 20% -7.3%
≤90d 156 +2.9% -6.9% 82% 17% -7.2%
all 234 +0.9% -8.7% 79% 15% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 15% -8.3%
10% -17.5% 8% -17.0%
15% ← realistic here -25.4% 6% -25.1%
20% -32.8% 4% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$4,412) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$351 vs −$1,075 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$18,208
Realized−$15,535
Unrealized+$464
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses184 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$210
Open positions18
Markets (closed)234 / 252
History coverage117d ⚠
Avg bet$3,317
Trades / day27.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 234 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 19¢ $2,491 $3,039 +$548 (+22%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 79¢ 75¢ $2,915 $2,776 −$139 (-5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ $1,475 $2,342 +$867 (+59%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $2,524 $2,245 −$279 (-11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1,848 $1,710 −$138 (-7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,118 $1,256 +$138 (+12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,394 $916 −$478 (-34%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $551 $900 +$348 (+63%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $875 $681 −$195 (-22%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $421 $527 +$105 (+25%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $243 $478 +$235 (+97%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $430 $284 −$146 (-34%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $309 $252 −$57 (-18%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $276 $235 −$41 (-15%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $195 $203 +$8 (+4%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $322 $170 −$151 (-47%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $178 $138 −$41 (-23%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $178 $57 −$122 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $2,496 +$439 +18%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 25 $1,895 +$14 +1%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 25 $2,281 −$1,692 -74%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $700 −$695 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3,785 +$152 +4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $873 +$64 +7%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $695 +$178 +26%
US military draft authorized in 2026? Jun 24 $23,459 +$75 +0%
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $1,908 +$362 +19%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $6,049 +$2,266 +38%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $517 +$135 +26%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2,204 −$1,520 -69%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $304 −$174 -57%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 23 $11,727 +$27 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4,412 +$257 +6%
France leading at halftime? Jun 22 $1,015 +$39 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,510 +$375 +15%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 22 $240 +$2 +1%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 22 $73 +$1 +1%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $1,945 +$66 +3%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $2,019 +$983 +49%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $1,004 +$178 +18%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $419 −$410 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $502 +$60 +12%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $10,697 +$203 +2%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $140 −$50 -36%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,962 +$69 +4%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 20 $1,275 +$240 +19%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,010 +$171 +8%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $950 +$243 +26%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $501 +$37 +7%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 19 $517 +$31 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $12,231 +$494 +4%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $1,066 −$109 -10%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $4,897 +$45 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $4,853 +$298 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $1,734 +$78 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $1,849 +$36 +2%
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? Jun 09 $710 +$24 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $12,458 +$302 +2%
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? Jun 08 $414 +$4 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $18,450 +$267 +1%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 07 $5,468 +$143 +3%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 07 $1,109 +$1 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $11,919 +$168 +1%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $41 +$1 +2%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31? Jun 01 $27 +$3 +10%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? Jun 01 $520 +$23 +4%
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? Jun 01 $180 +$11 +6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,347 +$5 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 79¢ $2,934 1m
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,935 32m
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 87¢ $1,048 58m
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 85¢ $861 59m
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? SELL Yes 95¢ $1,051 59m
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? SELL Yes 95¢ $857 59m
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 80¢ $588 1h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 21¢ $588 1h
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,895 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 79¢ $2,281 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 75¢ $201 24h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 73¢ $499 24h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $499 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 93¢ $873 25h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $873 25h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 79¢ $695 26h
US military draft authorized in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $694 26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 96¢ $3,785 26h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $501 47h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $503 47h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $1,008 47h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 24¢ $307 47h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,009 47h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 25¢ $307 47h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,009 47h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 25¢ $746 47h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $2,019 47h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 65¢ $643 2d
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $400 2d
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 91¢ $501 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,208.21 · official $18,322.58 (match) · 3500 history records