Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:43:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
EE 0xee67…62e0 sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$274 (-26%) realized −$276 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$237
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$279
other 17% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-44.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -51.4% -56.1% 33% 33% -48.8%
≤90d 5 -39.0% -44.8% 40% 40% -38.5%
all 5 -39.0% -44.8% 40% 40% -38.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.8% 40% -38.5%
10% -50.1% 40% -44.4%
15% -54.9% 40% -49.7%
20% -59.3% 20% -54.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$160 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized−$276
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage58d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 57¢ 57¢ $173 $175 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $110 −$109 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $228 −$225 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $212 +$97 +46%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 11 $151 −$147 -98%
Avalanche vs. Kings Apr 29 $178 +$106 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 57¢ $175 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $110 14d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 58¢ $228 23d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 68¢ $212 33d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Timberwolves 24¢ $151 42d
Avalanche vs. Kings BUY Avalanche 62¢ $178 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.52 · official $174.52 (match) · 8 history records