Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:52:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
EE 0xee67…fd6d other 254 markets active 1h ago coverage 662d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12,985 (+6%) realized +$13,165 · open −$180
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate75%184W / 62L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$887per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$10,619now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,995
7 days+$2,777
14 days+$6,859
30 days+$6,989
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% +$2,559
world 28% +$4,177
other 28% +$1,972
crypto 5% +$3,582
tech 4% +$463
economics 0% +$86
sports 0% −$35
culture 0% +$8
finance 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.3% -9.8% 83% 8% -4.4%
≤30d 27 -5.3% -14.3% 74% 15% -0.1%
≤90d 75 -1.7% -11.1% 76% 16% -1.4%
all 246 -0.1% -9.6% 75% 21% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 21% -3.8%
10% -18.2% 9% -13.0%
15% -26.1% 2% -21.4%
20% -33.4% 2% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$618) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$51 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.35 per $1 lost it wins $5.35
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

662d coverage
Net worth$10,619
Realized+$13,165
Unrealized−$180
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses184 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)246 / 254
History coverage662d
Avg bet$887
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 246 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $3,243 $3,239 −$4 (-0%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 84¢ $1,982 $1,947 −$35 (-2%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 92¢ 97¢ $1,498 $1,582 +$84 (+6%)
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 80¢ 73¢ $1,694 $1,540 −$154 (-9%)
Netanyahu out by July 31? No 95¢ 95¢ $1,487 $1,489 +$2 (+0%)
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $373 $374 +$1 (+0%)
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 64¢ 50¢ $350 $275 −$75 (-21%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $172 $174 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $8 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $9,171 +$1,973 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $188 +$8 +4%
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 16 $894 +$14 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $506 −$173 -34%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 15 $136 +$12 +9%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $98 −$26 -26%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $173 +$6 +4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $4,065 +$46 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 15 $6,315 +$323 +5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 14 $1,875 +$87 +5%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $25,657 +$506 +2%
Ebola pandemic in 2026? Jun 10 $1,157 +$19 +2%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Jun 10 $731 +$83 +11%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 10 $784 +$14 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $234 −$2 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 05 $107 −$106 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $5,871 +$4,068 +69%
First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $490 +$9 +2%
Will Nithya Raman & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2 Jun 03 $303 +$11 +4%
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange Jun 01 $294 −$3 -1%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 01 $480 +$4 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $4,734 +$110 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $1,380 +$168 +12%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 26 $760 +$17 +2%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 19 $390 −$177 -45%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 10 $6,014 +$86 +1%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 09 $1 $0 +25%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 06 $765 +$78 +10%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $8,264 +$257 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $1,704 +$128 +8%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary electio Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will another party win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungar Apr 18 $4 −$1 -22%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 18 $316 +$23 +7%
Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary elect Apr 18 $1,600 +$29 +2%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 18 $4,464 +$203 +5%
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the ne Apr 12 $566 −$44 -8%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungaria Apr 12 $3,888 +$901 +23%
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parl Apr 12 $99 +$29 +29%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $5,710 +$1,425 +25%
Will Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party (Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt) (MKKP Apr 12 $998 +$71 +7%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parl Apr 12 $2,284 +$113 +5%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 115-129 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly Apr 10 $121 +$7 +6%
Will the Democratic Coalition (DK) win at least one seat in the next H Apr 08 $658 −$19 -3%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 08 $155 +$5 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 08 $1,111 +$83 +8%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 110 seats? Apr 04 $279 +$6 +2%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 100-114 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly Apr 04 $124 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,270 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $249 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $124 1h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $172 1h
Netanyahu out by July 31? BUY No 95¢ $143 1h
Netanyahu out by July 31? BUY No 95¢ $1,156 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,156 9h
Netanyahu out by July 31? BUY No 94¢ $188 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $196 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $496 27h
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 59¢ $491 29h
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? SELL No 89¢ $4 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $173 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $116 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $52 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $45 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $49 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $188 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $8 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $196 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $35 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $7 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $7 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $20 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $20 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $88 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $31 2d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $148 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,619.04 · official $10,619.04 (match) · 2209 history records