Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:15:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EE 0xee68…b3e0 other 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate54%30W / 26L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$6
other 36% +$2
politics 15% +$2
crypto 7% $0
culture 2% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.6% -6.2% 50% 17% -9.4%
≤30d 13 +5.1% -4.9% 54% 23% -8.4%
≤90d 13 +5.1% -4.9% 54% 23% -8.4%
all 56 +1.9% -7.8% 54% 7% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 7% -8.7%
10% -16.6% 2% -17.4%
15% -24.7% 0% -25.4%
20% -32.1% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.79 per $1 lost it wins $5.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses30 / 26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)56 / 58
History coverage469d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 25¢ 25¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $54 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $40 +$1 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $49 −$1 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $9 −$1 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +29%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $67 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $53 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $54 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $33 +$2 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $1 $0 +21%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $51 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $16 +$3 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? Dec 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 16 $10 $0 -1%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $6 $0 +4%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by over 23%? Jun 06 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 18 $9 $0 +3%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? May 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down this week? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 09 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2000 on May 9? May 07 $10 $0 +2%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? May 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 07 $8 +$1 +17%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 25 $4 $0 -1%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 25 $2 $0 -3%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president Apr 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Newfoundland and Lab Apr 23 $13 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 23 $13 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? Apr 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 18 $13 $0 -0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following th Apr 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will 0 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 29 $15 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Tate go to the UK before April? Mar 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $18 3m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $54 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $54 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 10h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $36 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $40 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $40 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $18 28h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $4 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $34 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $11 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $49 37h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 45h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 45h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $4 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $19 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $19 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $4 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $41 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $8 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $53 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $3 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $32 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $3 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.34 · official $18.34 (match) · 154 history records