Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:05:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EE 0xee73…9581 world 101 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate42%42W / 57L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$7
14 days+$11
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% +$32
other 28% −$1
sports 22% −$5
politics 18% −$1
crypto 1% −$1
economics 0% −$4
finance 0% −$7
weather 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)+6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.7% -8.0% 67% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 26 +0.4% -9.2% 42% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 47 +42.4% +28.8% 38% 4% -9.5%
all 99 +17.7% +6.5% 42% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.5% 2% -9.5%
10% -3.7% 2% -18.1%
15% -13.0% 1% -26.1%
20% -21.6% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late +40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses42 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions2
Markets (closed)99 / 101
History coverage470d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $101 $101 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $176 +$4 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $197 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $98 +$3 +3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $98 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $150 +$3 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $199 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $195 +$3 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $102 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $2 $0 -12%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $104 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $178 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $211 −$2 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $52 +$3 +6%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $92 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $276 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $73 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $104 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $101 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $201 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $183 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $2 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 28 $93 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $98 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $187 +$15 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $105 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $97 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $19 −$7 -39%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $113 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 18 $13 +$4 +33%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $86 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $94 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $86 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $181 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $6 $0 -8%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $1,084 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $98 +$9 +9%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $1,540 −$5 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $1,080 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $42 −$4 -10%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $49 −$1 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $128 +$1 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $1,971 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $985 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $994 −$9 -1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 20 $4 $0 -4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 19 $1 $0 +0%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jun 26 $11 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $101 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $82 30h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $81 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $100 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $100 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $101 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $81 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $17 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $2 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $95 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $97 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $22 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $6 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $70 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $98 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $38 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $11 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $49 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 71¢ $50 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 71¢ $45 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $49 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $47 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $102 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $104 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.34 · official $101.48 · 360 history records