Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:16:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

EE 0xee78…c5c0 crypto 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$153 (+21%) realized +$154 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip

Net edge-24%after slip

Net WR58%break-even

Win rate58%14W / 10L

Drawdown54%max

Avg bet$28per market

Trades / day10.7pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit58%portable

Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +58%

net ROI/market (all)-18.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	24	-9.5%	-18.1%	58%	58%	+11.8%
≤30d	24	-9.5%	-18.1%	58%	58%	+11.8%
≤90d	24	-9.5%	-18.1%	58%	58%	+11.8%
all	24	-9.5%	-18.1%	58%	58%	+11.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.7 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-18.1%	58%	+11.8%
10%	-25.9%	58%	+1.1%
15%	-33.1%	42%	-8.7%
20%	-39.6%	17%	-17.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -9% · $-wt +24% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -20% → late +1% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$19 vs −$12 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$99

Realized+$154

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)58%

Wins / losses14 / 10

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)24 / 26

History coverage5d

Avg bet$28

Trades / day10.7

Drawdown54%

Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 24 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe	Taylor Fritz	68¢	68¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	68¢	68¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Jun 20	$11	−$10	-94%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$131	+$62	+47%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$51	+$37	+72%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$40	+$12	+30%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$30	+$17	+57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Jun 18	$3	+$1	+26%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$99	+$69	+70%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$4	−$4	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Jun 17	$3	+$1	+36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Jun 17	$6	−$2	-29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Jun 17	$3	+$1	+34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Jun 17	$3	+$1	+33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Jun 17	$4	−$2	-48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Jun 17	$3	$0	-6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Jun 17	$4	−$1	-24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Jun 17	$3	+$1	+36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Jun 17	$2	+$1	+58%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$83	−$80	-96%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$56	+$27	+48%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$38	+$18	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-94%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$3	−$3	-97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$32	+$15	+46%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe	BUY Taylor Fritz	68¢	$50	56m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$50	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	BUY Down	4¢	$11	11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	99¢	$193	11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$87	14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$81	16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$51	18h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$51	18h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	99¢	$52	2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$10	2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	76¢	$40	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$48	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	BUY Down	78¢	$3	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$30	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$168	3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$32	3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	8¢	$4	3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$66	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$4	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	BUY Down	71¢	$3	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	BUY Up	69¢	$3	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	SELL Up	79¢	$4	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	BUY Up	56¢	$3	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	SELL Up	81¢	$4	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	BUY Up	58¢	$3	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	BUY Down	74¢	$3	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$2	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	SELL Down	69¢	$3	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$2	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$3	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.26 · official $99.26 (match) · 56 history records