Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:42:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee78…3f71 crypto 170 markets active 0h ago coverage 663d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$137 (-2%) realized −$137 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%94W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$119
7 days−$122
14 days−$122
30 days−$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 66% −$2
crypto 21% −$122
other 12% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 138 -3.3% -12.5% 59% 58% -17.0%
≤30d 138 -3.3% -12.5% 59% 58% -17.0%
≤90d 138 -3.3% -12.5% 59% 58% -17.0%
all 170 +0.4% -9.1% 55% 51% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 51% -11.1%
10% -17.8% 51% -19.6%
15% -25.8% 46% -27.4%
20% -33.1% 38% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

663d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$137
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses94 / 76
Open positions0
Markets (closed)170 / 170
History coverage663d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 170 Trades
no open positions (56 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 22 $40 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$14 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$41 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$23 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$12 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$12 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$38 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 22 $41 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $40 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $40 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$13 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$16 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $41 +$29 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $40 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $14 +$13 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $41 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $38 −$37 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$23 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $40 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$30 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $40 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$26 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$21 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $40 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $40 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $40 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $40 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $40 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $40 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $41 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $41 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $38 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 361 history records