Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:15:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee7a…94d1 politics 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%18W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% $0
politics 35% $0
other 15% −$1
sports 7% $0
culture 4% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 -0.7% -10.1% 27% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 11 -0.7% -10.1% 27% 0% -9.5%
all 52 -0.1% -9.7% 35% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses18 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage301d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $36 $0 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $11 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $33 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $79 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $18 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $32 +$1 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $35 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $32 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $4 $0 -8%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 24 $10 $0 +2%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Dec 17 $9 −$2 -28%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 14 $17 $0 +2%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Nov 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Oct 24 $10 $0 +4%
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? Oct 22 $10 $0 +2%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 22 $8 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 06 $2 $0 +6%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $17 $0 -0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 29 $16 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 29 $6 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-09-26? Sep 28 $6 $0 +4%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 16 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 08 $69 $0 -1%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 02 $6 $0 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 29 $6 $0 -0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 28 $2 $0 +5%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 28 $5 $0 -1%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 27 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $36 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $36 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 15h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 17h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 17h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $27 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $9 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $24 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $2 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $31 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $33 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $24 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $4 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $5 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $24 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $8 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $22 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $5 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $10 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $15 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $18 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $26 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $6 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $32 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 266 history records