Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EE 0xee7b…0045 crypto 1562 markets active 3h ago coverage 127d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 126d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate89%1393W / 166L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$28
sports 0% $0
other 0% +$8
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 229 +6.3% -3.8% 89% 40% -7.7%
≤30d 232 +6.3% -3.8% 89% 39% -7.7%
≤90d 501 +0.8% -8.8% 86% 57% -10.4%
all 1559 +0.3% -9.2% 89% 21% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 21% -9.9%
10% -17.9% 1% -18.5%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses1393 / 166
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1559 / 1562
History coverage127d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1559 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Yes 88¢ 90¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+2%)
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan India 91¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 95¢ 95¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $1 +$7 +650%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $7 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 91¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $4 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.05 · official $7.03 (match) · 3500 history records