Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:32:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EE 0xee7f…4763 world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 449d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% −$8
other 19% +$2
finance 5% +$1
politics 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.6% -11.0% 17% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 19 -0.6% -10.0% 26% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 19 -0.6% -10.0% 26% 0% -9.5%
all 32 -1.9% -11.2% 44% 6% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 6% -9.9%
10% -19.7% 3% -18.5%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

449d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage449d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 73¢ 72¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 51¢ 90¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $5 $0 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $41 −$1 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $96 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $48 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $40 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $24 −$1 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $22 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $45 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $147 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $55 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $2 $0 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $48 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $48 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $51 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 26 $46 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $48 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 11 $7 +$2 +24%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $6 +$1 +20%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%? Jun 04 $1 $0 +3%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $6 $0 +2%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Tom Kim win The 2025 Masters? Apr 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 Apr 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Michigan State win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 01 $14 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $4 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $4 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $30 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $52 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $36 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $3 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $41 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $15 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $34 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $48 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $16 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $31 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $7 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $48 46h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $9 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $33 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $6 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $25 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $11 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $39 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $1 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $23 15d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $24 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.09 · official $14.50 (match) · 120 history records