Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:29:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
EE 0xee82…f011 other 365 markets active 2h ago coverage 622d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,473 (-6%) realized −$2,214 · open −$259
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate43%147W / 198L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,362now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$183
7 days−$103
14 days−$916
30 days−$854
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% +$68
world 25% +$178
politics 15% +$436
economics 12% −$1,674
crypto 11% −$1,304
sports 7% −$290
tech 1% −$143
culture 1% −$17
finance 0% −$12
weather 0% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -36.5% -42.5% 9% 9% -25.2%
≤30d 53 -43.8% -49.2% 28% 13% -18.2%
≤90d 161 -39.4% -45.2% 25% 15% -22.1%
all 345 -12.4% -20.7% 43% 28% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 28% -14.9%
10% -28.3% 22% -23.1%
15% -35.2% 17% -30.5%
20% -41.6% 14% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$41 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

622d coverage
Net worth$1,362
Realized−$2,214
Unrealized−$259
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses147 / 198
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions20
Markets (closed)345 / 365
History coverage622d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 345 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 87¢ 64¢ $261 $194 −$68 (-26%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 40¢ $338 $180 −$158 (-47%)
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Yes 96¢ 97¢ $166 $168 +$2 (+1%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 55¢ 58¢ $109 $117 +$8 (+7%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 95¢ 95¢ $95 $95 +$0 (+0%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $92 $94 +$2 (+2%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 45¢ 42¢ $67 $62 −$5 (-7%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 20¢ 42¢ $20 $42 +$21 (+105%)
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+3%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+4%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Yes 80¢ 66¢ $48 $40 −$8 (-17%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 19¢ $42 $39 −$3 (-8%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $43 $38 −$5 (-11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $59 $38 −$21 (-35%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $52 $37 −$15 (-29%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 34¢ 35¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+3%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $19 $12 −$6 (-34%)
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 28 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27? Jun 28 $106 −$106 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 28 $5 −$3 -49%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 28 $10 −$7 -68%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $5 −$2 -29%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 26 $183 −$33 -18%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $172 −$29 -17%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$141 +276%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $107 −$26 -25%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$9 +86%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -91%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $4 $0 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $186 +$14 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $264 −$64 -24%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $44 +$8 +18%
Will James Magnussen win the 50m freestyle at the 2026 Enhanced Games? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Andril Govorov win the 50m freestyle at the 2026 Enhanced Games? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? Jun 17 $59 −$13 -22%
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on May 5? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $689 −$86 -12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Jun 17 $86 −$86 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 17 $136 −$136 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 17 $157 −$142 -90%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by June 30? Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $33 −$21 -64%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $18 $0 +3%
Will SpaceX have the highest private market valuation on June 30? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -92%
Will OpenAI have the highest private market valuation on June 30? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -62%
Will Anthropic have the highest private market valuation on June 30? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 14 $100 −$86 -86%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $44 +$6 +12%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 07 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? Jun 03 $32 −$7 -23%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $328 +$72 +22%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $995 −$30 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,330 +$139 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $9 +$1 +15%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $393 +$107 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $341 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 87¢ $87 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 87¢ $175 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $43 36h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 96¢ $2 43h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $293 45h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on SELL Yes 2¢ $3 45h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 45h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 45h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 96¢ $22 2d
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 96¢ $143 2d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $37 2d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $58 2d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $59 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $143 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY 26¢ $51 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $81 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $41 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 16¢ $106 7d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 8d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 8d
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 9d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 9d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 10d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 4¢ $5 11d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 11d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 84¢ $44 11d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 11d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,362.07 · official $1,362.07 (match) · 1389 history records