Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:31:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EE 0xee87…1acb crypto 213 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$22 (-4%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate75%160W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% +$1
sports 29% −$24
weather 1% −$2
other 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +34.0% +21.2% 100% 60% +24.8%
≤30d 8 +22.9% +11.2% 100% 38% +11.9%
≤90d 56 -28.4% -35.3% 59% 25% -47.8%
all 212 -5.1% -14.1% 75% 42% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 42% -13.3%
10% -22.3% 22% -21.6%
15% -29.8% 12% -29.2%
20% -36.7% 6% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses160 / 52
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)212 / 213
History coverage144d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-05? Apr 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 +2%
Kosovo vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 03 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Mar 31 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 31 $1 $0 +3%
Kayserispor vs. Fatih Karagümrük SK: O/U 1.5 Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 31 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 31 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Mar 31 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 31 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Mar 31 $1 $0 +7%
Cagliari Calcio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5 Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 31 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 31 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 30 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Mar 30 $1 $0 +7%
Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 Mar 23 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Mar 23 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 +9%
Aston Villa FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 1.5 Mar 20 $2 +$1 +35%
Beşiktaş JK vs. Kasımpaşa SK: O/U 2.5 Mar 19 $1 +$1 +61%
Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 1.5 Mar 19 $1 $0 +11%
Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 2.5 Mar 19 $2 +$1 +39%
FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5 Mar 18 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Mar 18 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 4? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 2.5 Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Lille OSC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 18 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 18 $2 −$1 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or higher on March 12? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Çaykur Rizespor vs. Antalyaspor: O/U 2.5 Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Aston Villa FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 1.5 Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Beşiktaş JK vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 1.5 Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5 Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 1.5 Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Fatih Karagümrük SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 2.5 Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Getafe CF: O/U 1.5 Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 58m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1 18h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 13d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 88¢ $5 62d
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-05? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $1 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $1 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $1 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.01 · official $1.01 (match) · 624 history records