Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:57:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EE 0xee8a…69ac sports 376 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$299 (-2%) realized −$299 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate58%215W / 157L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$160est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$186
7 days+$137
14 days+$417
30 days+$417
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$173
other 34% −$579
finance 0% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +16.4% +5.4% 59% 59% -4.4%
≤30d 50 +20.5% +9.0% 62% 62% +2.7%
≤90d 372 -0.9% -10.4% 58% 57% -11.9%
all 372 -0.9% -10.4% 58% 57% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 57% -11.9%
10% -18.9% 57% -20.4%
15% -26.8% 54% -28.1%
20% -34.0% 45% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$45 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized−$299
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses215 / 157
Est. fees paid−$160
Open positions3
Markets (closed)372 / 376
History coverage82d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 372 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $49 $49 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$27 +105%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$47 +93%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $253 −$250 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $102 +$103 +101%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$58 +114%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $203 +$71 +35%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$34 +67%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$77 +76%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$47 +93%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 16 $202 −$102 -50%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $192 +$201 +105%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $127 −$125 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $193 −$35 -18%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$38 +93%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $20 −$7 -35%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $32 +$43 +134%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $41 +$35 +86%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $52 +$36 +70%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $61 +$52 +86%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $71 −$70 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $51 +$45 +90%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$33 +109%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 13 $25 +$21 +83%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $51 +$39 +78%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $71 +$45 +63%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $46 +$50 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $30 −$1 -4%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $30 +$28 +93%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $46 +$43 +94%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $46 +$32 +71%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $31 −$2 -6%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $51 +$42 +83%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $207 +$128 +62%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $25 +$24 +93%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $25 +$19 +76%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 09 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $51 +$36 +70%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $25 +$20 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 31¢ $26 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $98 12h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 48¢ $25 14h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 14h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $51 14h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $253 18h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $25 41h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 41h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 45h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 49¢ $102 45h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $25 45h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $51 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $51 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $101 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $101 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $394 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $178 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $98 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $192 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 60¢ $97 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 55¢ $95 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $50 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $101 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $13 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $38 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 57¢ $101 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $76 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.79 · official $223.80 · 793 history records