Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:37:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee8a…d6ad world 51 markets active 3d ago coverage 265d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$20 (-2%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate31%16W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$8
14 days+$5
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$4
other 14% $0
politics 9% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 2% −$25
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +6.0% -4.1% 33% 22% -7.5%
≤30d 20 +2.4% -7.4% 35% 10% -9.1%
≤90d 20 +2.4% -7.4% 35% 10% -9.1%
all 51 -1.1% -10.5% 31% 4% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 4% -11.1%
10% -19.1% 4% -19.6%
15% -26.9% 0% -27.4%
20% -34.1% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

265d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses16 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage265d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $49 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $9 +$3 +29%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $98 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $18 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $15 +$3 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $47 +$2 +4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $47 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $4 $0 +7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $46 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $88 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $85 −$3 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $9 $0 +5%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $2 $0 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $92 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $43 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $47 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $9 −$1 -9%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Feb 01 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Nov 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 05 $26 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Oct 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 27 $10 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025? Oct 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $28 $0 +1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 01 $25 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 30 $26 $0 -1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 29 $8 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Sep 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Sep 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $24 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 23 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $49 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $49 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $51 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $51 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $18 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $18 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $19 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $49 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $47 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $9 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $9 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 81¢ $32 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 81¢ $15 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 81¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 81¢ $40 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $19 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $22 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $6 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $47 6d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 7d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 179 history records