Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:23:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EE 0xee8b…75f5 politics 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-2%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$2
politics 47% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -13.9% -22.1% 67% 0% -22.0%
≤90d 3 -13.9% -22.1% 67% 0% -22.0%
all 8 -5.0% -14.0% 50% 0% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 0% -12.1%
10% -22.3% 0% -20.5%
15% -29.8% 0% -28.2%
20% -36.7% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$11 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage128d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will Matej Tonin be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? May 21 $27 −$11 -42%
Will Dialogue for Hungary (Párbeszéd) win the most seats in the next H Mar 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will LMP – Hungary’s Green Party (LMP) win the most seats in the next Mar 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Christian Democratic People’s Party (KDNP) win the most seats Mar 11 $36 $0 +0%
Will AICO win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election? Mar 08 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting? Feb 12 $112 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 23d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 26d
Will Matej Tonin be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? SELL Yes 0¢ $16 29d
Will Matej Tonin be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? BUY Yes 0¢ $27 29d
Will Dialogue for Hungary (Párbeszéd) win the most seats in the next H SELL Yes 0¢ $38 92d
Will Dialogue for Hungary (Párbeszéd) win the most seats in the next H BUY Yes 0¢ $38 92d
Will LMP – Hungary’s Green Party (LMP) win the most seats in the next SELL Yes 0¢ $36 97d
Will LMP – Hungary’s Green Party (LMP) win the most seats in the next BUY Yes 0¢ $36 97d
Will the Christian Democratic People’s Party (KDNP) win the most seats SELL Yes 0¢ $36 101d
Will the Christian Democratic People’s Party (KDNP) win the most seats BUY Yes 0¢ $36 101d
Will AICO win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election? SELL Yes 0¢ $33 104d
Will AICO win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election? BUY Yes 0¢ $33 104d
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting? SELL No 59¢ $38 128d
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting? BUY No 58¢ $38 128d
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting? SELL No 57¢ $3 128d
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting? SELL No 59¢ $35 128d
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting? BUY No 58¢ $38 128d
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting? SELL No 58¢ $38 128d
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting? BUY No 57¢ $37 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.96 · official $27.96 (match) · 22 history records