Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:49:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
EE 0xee8b…dcd9 sports 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,511 (+13%) realized +$5,413 · open +$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate90%45W / 5L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$750per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$482est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$630now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$1,282
14 days+$3,051
30 days+$5,316
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$5,600
other 6% −$185
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +29.2% +16.9% 83% 61% +0.8%
≤30d 50 +17.2% +6.1% 90% 42% +2.3%
≤90d 50 +17.2% +6.1% 90% 42% +2.3%
all 50 +17.2% +6.1% 90% 42% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.1% 42% +2.3%
10% ← realistic here -4.1% 26% -7.5%
15% -13.3% 20% -16.4%
20% -21.8% 12% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$1,153) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$166 vs −$431 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.47 per $1 lost it wins $3.47
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$630
Realized+$5,413
Unrealized+$98
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses45 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$482
Open positions5
Markets (closed)50 / 55
History coverage17d
Avg bet$750
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Noir Esports 40¢ 50¢ $329 $415 +$86 (+26%)
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus - Map 1 Winner Dplus 97¢ 100¢ $117 $121 +$4 (+3%)
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Noir Esports (+1.5) Noir Esports 46¢ 50¢ $80 $88 +$8 (+9%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports - Game 1 Winner Noir Esports 42¢ 50¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+20%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $58 +$8 +14%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $1 $0 +56%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Gro Jun 15 $14 +$4 +25%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $807 −$56 -7%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,271 +$487 +38%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $788 +$735 +93%
Neymar Jr: 2+ shots Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 14 $178 $0 +0%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $609 +$572 +94%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $322 +$21 +7%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- Jun 12 $20 +$54 +263%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $1,030 +$135 +13%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,023 −$503 -49%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win Jun 11 $1,315 −$1,315 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $456 +$24 +5%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - MPL In Jun 11 $205 +$30 +15%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $2,365 +$961 +41%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $744 +$124 +17%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs Clutchain - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $1,816 +$317 +17%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $2,411 +$213 +9%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $3,622 +$391 +11%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1,509 −$282 -19%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $533 +$208 +39%
Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs Shopify Rebellion Gold - Map 3 Winner Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $862 +$658 +76%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $1,575 +$49 +3%
Valorant: SwimTrek Blue vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Cha Jun 06 $173 +$6 +3%
Valorant: SwimTrek Blue vs Shopify Rebellion Gold - Map 4 Winner Jun 06 $195 +$4 +2%
Valorant: SwimTrek Blue vs Shopify Rebellion Gold - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $20 $0 +1%
Valorant: ARETE vs Gen.G Global Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $41 +$7 +18%
Valorant: Dplus vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 05 $40 +$34 +84%
Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Chan Jun 05 $532 +$53 +10%
Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs Shopify Rebellion Gold - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $981 +$19 +2%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs DRX Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $496 +$22 +4%
Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs SwimTrek Blue - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $1,153 +$61 +5%
Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs SwimTrek Blue (BO3) - VCT Game Changers Nort Jun 04 $55 +$3 +5%
Valorant: Dplus vs ARETE - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $74 +$1 +2%
Valorant: Dplus vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 03 $294 +$5 +2%
Valorant: T1 Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $27 +$1 +2%
Valorant: T1 Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regula Jun 03 $105 +$36 +34%
Will the BLAST Slam VII Grand Final be a reverse sweep? Jun 03 $12 +$1 +10%
Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5) Jun 02 $2,271 +$750 +33%
Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Team Yandex (+1.5) Jun 02 $2,671 +$947 +36%
Will PARIVISION win BLAST Slam VII? Jun 02 $500 +$20 +4%
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 01 $1,786 +$94 +5%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports - Map 2 Winner May 31 $209 +$16 +8%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup May 31 $367 +$21 +6%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner May 31 $4,652 +$343 +7%
Valorant: LOUD vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifi May 31 $306 +$16 +5%
Valorant: LOUD vs Sentinels - Map 2 Winner May 31 $190 +$21 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus - Map 1 Winner BUY Dplus 97¢ $117 1h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 2 Winner BUY ONSIDE GAMING 87¢ $58 2h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 64¢ $1 29h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Noir Esports 42¢ $3 2d
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 97¢ $237 2d
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 93¢ $388 2d
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner SELL Roar Gaming 6¢ $0 2d
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner SELL Roar Gaming 6¢ $0 2d
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner SELL Roar Gaming 7¢ $36 2d
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 14¢ $61 2d
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 14¢ $2 2d
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner SELL Roar Gaming 23¢ $37 2d
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner SELL Roar Gaming 26¢ $11 2d
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner SELL Roar Gaming 26¢ $6 2d
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 38¢ $2 2d
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 38¢ $31 2d
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 40¢ $87 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner SELL LOS 89¢ $7 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 73¢ $911 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 73¢ $2 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 73¢ $182 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 68¢ $61 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 68¢ $108 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 68¢ $7 2d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY Noir Esports 40¢ $329 2d
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Noir Esports (+1.5) BUY Noir Esports 48¢ $5 3d
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Gro BUY Noir Esports 40¢ $14 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $2 3d
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Noir Esports (+1.5) BUY Noir Esports 46¢ $77 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 51¢ $788 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $630.14 · official $630.14 (match) · 382 history records