Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:47:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
EE 0xee8d…030a sports 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$741 (+16%) realized +$741 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%17W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$130
14 days+$130
30 days+$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$380
sports 45% +$509
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -17.5% -25.4% 39% 36% -6.9%
≤30d 44 -17.5% -25.4% 39% 36% -6.9%
≤90d 44 -17.5% -25.4% 39% 36% -6.9%
all 44 -17.5% -25.4% 39% 36% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 36% -6.9%
10% -32.5% 32% -15.8%
15% -39.0% 30% -23.9%
20% -45.0% 20% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$45 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$741
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses17 / 27
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage7d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $89 +$221 +249%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $96 −$7 -8%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $51 −$4 -9%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $154 +$8 +5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $781 −$775 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $664 +$117 +18%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $31 −$30 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $147 +$122 +83%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $455 +$198 +43%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 28 $57 −$17 -30%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $41 −$39 -95%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $387 +$124 +32%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $323 +$64 +20%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $133 +$47 +36%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 27 $125 +$84 +67%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $15 −$4 -23%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $3 +$8 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $112 −$110 -98%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $133 +$163 +122%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $64 −$62 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $71 +$31 +43%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $17 +$15 +92%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 $0 -4%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $71 +$39 +54%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $47 +$24 +50%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 $0 -9%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $96 +$70 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance AND Netherlands vs. Morocco: BUY 31¢ $310 13m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 100¢ $310 15m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 28¢ $89 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 28¢ $89 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 29¢ $96 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $47 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $49 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $781 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL No 86¢ $756 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL No 79¢ $26 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 72¢ $664 6h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 30¢ $10 19h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 25¢ $10 19h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 43¢ $10 19h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 26h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 26h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $53 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 92¢ $269 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 43¢ $46 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 28h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $30 41h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $653 43h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 44h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $455 44h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 44h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $39 44h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 44h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 2¢ $2 44h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $41 44h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 92¢ $511 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $303.67 · 90 history records