Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:14:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee8f…ec4c sports 200 markets active 2h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%24W / 175L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$5
other 19% +$1
politics 18% −$1
economics 12% −$1
crypto 9% $0
world 5% −$1
culture 3% $0
tech 2% $0
weather 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 199 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses24 / 175
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)199 / 200
History coverage175d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $37 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 15 $182 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 03 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 03 $136 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 03 $138 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 03 $98 $0 -0%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 03 $39 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 03 $152 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 03 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $154 $0 -0%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 03 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 03 $47 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 25 $233 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 25 $103 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 25 $94 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 25 $37 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 3, 2026 (ET)? Feb 25 $42 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? Feb 25 $49 $0 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 22 $92 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 22 $98 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 22 $147 $0 -0%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-02-22? Feb 22 $92 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $202 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 22 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $148 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $48 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $104 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Feb 22 $97 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 22 $151 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 21 $209 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 21 $134 $0 -0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Feb 21 $0 $0 +0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 21 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 21 $49 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 21 $89 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 21 $255 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)? Feb 21 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 21 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 21 $96 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 20 $49 $0 -0%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Feb 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 18 $118 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)? Feb 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 18 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 97¢ $47 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $44 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $44 8d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $37 15d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 16d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $36 26d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $36 27d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $43 39d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $43 39d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 92¢ $39 112d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 93¢ $39 112d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 94¢ $43 112d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $43 112d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $47 112d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $47 112d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $50 112d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $50 112d
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $39 112d
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 112d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 97¢ $45 112d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 97¢ $45 112d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38 112d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 112d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $48 112d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $48 112d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $44 112d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $44 112d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $48 112d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $48 112d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 93¢ $45 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.25 · official $47.25 (match) · 745 history records