Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:04:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EE 0xee8f…397d sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$135 (-24%) realized −$134 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$133
crypto 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 -19.0% -26.7% 57% 57% -37.1%
≤90d 7 -19.0% -26.7% 57% 57% -37.1%
all 7 -19.0% -26.7% 57% 57% -37.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.7% 57% -37.1%
10% -33.7% 43% -43.1%
15% -40.1% 43% -48.6%
20% -46.0% 14% -53.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$82 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$134
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage18d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 59¢ 58¢ $107 $106 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $66 −$65 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $179 −$173 -97%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $123 +$54 +44%
Solana Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $8 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $71 +$52 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.26 · official $106.26 (match) · 16 history records