Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:01:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee91…4a1b other 48 markets active 4d ago coverage 590d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate23%11W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 68% −$8
other 20% −$28
crypto 4% +$1
economics 2% $0
sports 2% +$23
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -33.5% -39.8% 0% 0% -24.7%
≤30d 15 -1.9% -11.2% 20% 7% -12.4%
≤90d 36 -0.2% -9.7% 22% 11% -10.0%
all 47 -0.2% -9.7% 23% 9% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 9% -9.9%
10% -18.4% 9% -18.5%
15% -26.3% 9% -26.4%
20% -33.5% 6% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses11 / 36
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage590d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $120 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $23 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $52 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $7 +$5 +73%
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 13 $102 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 11 $52 $0 -0%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 11 $6 +$5 +90%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $50 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $49 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $46 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 21 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $10 +$8 +86%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $12 +$5 +46%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 06 $10 $0 +0%
Based FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? Mar 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in January? Feb 13 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 14 $127 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 20 $9 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 04 $17 +$1 +5%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $9 $0 -3%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $21 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $148 −$3 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 03 $903 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 03 $426 −$1 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Nov 03 $584 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $12 3d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 4d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 4d
Will Solana reach $120 in June? BUY No 99¢ $23 5d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $7 5d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $7 5d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 10d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 11d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $11 12d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $11 12d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 21d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 22d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $10 26d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $10 28d
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $10 28d
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $7 28d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 29d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 29d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 30d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $38 30d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $54 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.53 · official $23.53 (match) · 251 history records