Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:15:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee93…05be other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%19W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$80
7 days−$111
14 days−$19
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$230
sports 11% +$143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -9.9% -18.5% 44% 44% -28.0%
≤30d 42 +15.3% +4.4% 45% 45% -13.3%
≤90d 43 +12.7% +1.9% 44% 44% -18.4%
all 43 +12.7% +1.9% 44% 44% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.9% 44% -18.4%
10% -7.8% 42% -26.2%
15% -16.7% 37% -33.3%
20% -24.9% 30% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$18 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses19 / 24
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage36d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $81 −$30 -37%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 +$19 +188%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $100 +$19 +18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$15 +152%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$90 +874%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$3 -10%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +36%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 +$20 +127%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $53 −$52 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 23¢ $51 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 3h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 4¢ $4 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 5¢ $5 3d
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 6d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 6d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 10¢ $5 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 92¢ $25 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 10d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 10d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.68 · official $100.68 (match) · 79 history records