Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:34:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EE 0xee94…2989 politics 55 markets active 3d ago coverage 417d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%24W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% $0
world 33% $0
tech 15% $0
other 9% $0
crypto 3% $0
finance 2% $0
economics 2% $0
sports 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.2% -8.5% 67% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 12 +0.4% -9.1% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 12 +0.4% -9.1% 33% 0% -9.4%
all 55 +0.2% -9.3% 44% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

417d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses24 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage417d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $113 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $46 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 +4%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $44 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $39 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $9 $0 +2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 19 $7 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September? Sep 17 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 17 $4 $0 -1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 16 $7 $0 +2%
Xi Jinping out before October? Jul 28 $3 $0 -2%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jul 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 25–August 1? Jul 28 $7 $0 -2%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jul 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? Jul 25 $9 $0 -2%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 25 $2 $0 +8%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 25 $8 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jul 24 $8 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 24 $7 $0 -3%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 10 $9 $0 -2%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 24 $9 $0 +1%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 08 $8 $0 +1%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 06 $2 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 23–30? May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $83000 and $85000 on Apr 25? Apr 27 $16 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 26 $5 $0 -5%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%? Apr 25 $2 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $46 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $46 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $46 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $46 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $46 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $46 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $17 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 71¢ $16 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $23 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 97¢ $23 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $46 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 89¢ $44 6d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 19¢ $15 7d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $43 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $44 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 96¢ $41 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 96¢ $41 9d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 139 history records