Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:31:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EE 0xee94…2cde sports 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$225 (+5%) realized +$224 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate54%38W / 33L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$130
30 days−$496
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$347
other 11% −$150
world 3% −$4
politics 1% −$7
tech 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +43.4% +29.8% 100% 100% +29.8%
≤30d 49 +12.1% +1.5% 55% 31% -30.7%
≤90d 71 +10.7% +0.1% 54% 32% -5.9%
all 71 +10.7% +0.1% 54% 32% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 32% -5.9%
10% -9.5% 28% -14.9%
15% -18.2% 24% -23.1%
20% -26.2% 18% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$40 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$224
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses38 / 33
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage48d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $13 −$12 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$50 +321%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $14 +$36 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $14 +$46 +344%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $65 −$64 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 +$7 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $13 +$34 +250%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $32 +$17 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 +$22 +276%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$9 +650%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $63 +$71 +112%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $53 −$52 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $14 +$6 +42%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $56 +$4 +8%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $75 −$42 -57%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 08 $753 −$753 -100%
Game 3: Any Player Quadra Kill? Jun 07 $10 $0 +3%
Game 2: Any Player Quadra Kill? Jun 07 $10 $0 +3%
Game 1: Any Player Penta Kill? Jun 07 $10 $0 +1%
Game 3: Any Player Penta Kill? Jun 06 $10 $0 +3%
Game 2: Any Player Penta Kill? Jun 06 $10 $0 +2%
Game 1: Any Player Penta Kill? Jun 06 $10 $0 +2%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $60 −$60 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $4 −$3 -68%
Game 3: Any Player Penta Kill? Jun 05 $10 $0 +2%
Game 2: Any Player Penta Kill? Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
Game 1: Any Player Penta Kill? Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $8 +$1 +11%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $312 +$281 +90%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $113 +$6 +6%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 02 $93 +$4 +5%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $42 +$52 +125%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $81 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $29 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $20 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 7d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 9d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 14d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 14d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 14d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 14d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $8 14d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $8 14d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 14d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 14d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 14d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 14d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 14d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 15d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 15d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 15d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 15d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 15d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 15d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 15d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 15d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $8 15d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 15d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 15d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 15d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 15d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.55 · official $80.55 (match) · 247 history records