Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:51:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
EE 0xee95…137a crypto 27 markets active 3d ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$69 (+5%) realized +$83 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%13W / 12L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$70
14 days+$70
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$8
other 19% +$75
sports 7% +$2
politics 1% −$10
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -0.3% -9.8% 61% 56% -5.0%
≤30d 18 -0.3% -9.8% 61% 56% -5.0%
≤90d 25 -10.7% -19.2% 52% 48% -5.6%
all 25 -10.7% -19.2% 52% 48% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 48% -5.6%
10% -27.0% 40% -14.6%
15% -34.0% 32% -22.9%
20% -40.5% 28% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$31 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$83
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses13 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage56d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-22%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 59¢ 28¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $86 −$1 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $76 +$22 +29%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$17 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $103 +$82 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $103 +$59 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $178 −$178 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$16 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$21 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $303 +$39 +13%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $90 +$142 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $61 +$26 +44%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Utah vs. Golden Knights Apr 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Atlas FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $7 +$10 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 19 $7 −$7 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 19 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 19 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $16 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $76 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $24 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $303 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $231 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.32 · official $21.33 (match) · 58 history records