Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:53:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee95…ff79 other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$13 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%7W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$90
7 days−$46
14 days−$91
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$30
sports 36% −$86
tech 4% +$68
crypto 4% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -35.4% -41.5% 43% 43% -28.1%
≤30d 19 -20.7% -28.3% 37% 37% -13.1%
≤90d 19 -20.7% -28.3% 37% 37% -13.1%
all 19 -20.7% -28.3% 37% 37% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.3% 37% -13.1%
10% -35.1% 37% -21.4%
15% -41.4% 32% -29.0%
20% -47.1% 21% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$19 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$173
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses7 / 12
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)19 / 23
History coverage15d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 22¢ $67 $86 +$19 (+28%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $56 $44 −$12 (-21%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $29 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $19 $14 −$5 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $53 −$53 -100%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $28 +$22 +76%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$9 +46%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $77 +$23 +31%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $35 −$2 -5%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $30 −$24 -79%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$23 -46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $68 +$32 +48%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $27 −$27 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$26 +86%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 +$29 +134%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $32 +$68 +216%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $30 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $38 18h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $15 18h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $37 18h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $28 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $23 5d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 76¢ $77 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $34 9d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 10¢ $6 9d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 30¢ $27 9d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 45¢ $30 9d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $20 9d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 55¢ $30 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 10d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $19 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $36 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $35 10d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $27 12d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 30¢ $9 12d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 12d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $20 12d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 34¢ $7 12d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $30 12d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 50¢ $10 12d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $21 13d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 31¢ $4 14d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 31¢ $0 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.96 · official $172.96 (match) · 57 history records