Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:33:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EE 0xee99…3ccd crypto 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$143 (-18%) realized −$148 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$123
7 days+$123
14 days+$49
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$43
world 28% −$102
crypto 23% −$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-42.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +112.0% +91.8% 100% 100% +91.8%
≤30d 10 -31.7% -38.2% 40% 40% -20.3%
≤90d 16 -36.9% -42.9% 38% 31% -28.8%
all 16 -36.9% -42.9% 38% 31% -28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.9% 31% -28.8%
10% -48.4% 19% -35.6%
15% -53.4% 12% -41.9%
20% -58.0% 6% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$31 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$148
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage114d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the South African Reserve Bank hold at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 31¢ 42¢ $34 $45 +$11 (+34%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $6 −$6 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 25 $110 +$123 +112%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $76 −$75 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 05 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 05 $61 −$6 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 05 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 05 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 05 $10 +$3 +27%
Military action against Iran ends by April 8, 2026? Apr 08 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate af Apr 08 $21 −$14 -64%
Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate after the M Apr 08 $16 −$5 -34%
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Natio Apr 02 $100 −$100 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 31 $100 +$16 +16%
Will the South African Reserve Bank decrease the repo rate after the M Mar 27 $113 +$9 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL Yes 83¢ $233 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $76 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 10d
Will the South African Reserve Bank hold at the July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 31¢ $35 11d
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 40¢ $8 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $20 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $25 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $40 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $31 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up $16 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 19d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 19d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 19d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 21d
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 38¢ $102 21d
Military action against Iran ends by April 8, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 78d
Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate af SELL No 18¢ $8 78d
Military action against Iran ends by April 8, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 78d
Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate after the M SELL Yes 10¢ $11 78d
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Natio BUY Yes 75¢ $100 84d
Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate after the M BUY Yes 15¢ $16 84d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $116 85d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 84¢ $100 89d
Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate af BUY No 50¢ $21 89d
Will the South African Reserve Bank decrease the repo rate after the M BUY No 93¢ $113 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.21 · official $51.21 (match) · 40 history records