Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:25:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

EE 0xee9c…088a crypto 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$2 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip

Net edge-40%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate50%3W / 3L

Drawdown86%max

Avg bet$278per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit86%portable

Net worth$378now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 113d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-39.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	6	-33.2%	-39.6%	50%	0%	-9.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-39.6%	0%	-9.5%
10%	-45.4%	0%	-18.2%
15%	-50.6%	0%	-26.1%
20%	-55.5%	0%	-33.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 75% · top 2 88% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -33% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.13 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage

Net worth$378

Realized+$2

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses3 / 3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage113d

Avg bet$278

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown86%

Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	86¢	86¢	$380	$378	−$2 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 6?	Mar 06	$390	−$1	-0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 4?	Mar 06	$390	$0	+0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on March 4?	Mar 04	$1	−$1	-100%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 4?	Mar 04	$1	−$1	-100%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on March 3?	Mar 04	$391	$0	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 2?	Mar 03	$389	+$2	+1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	86¢	$382	2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 6?	SELL Yes	100¢	$389	109d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 6?	BUY Yes	100¢	$390	109d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 4?	BUY Yes	100¢	$390	111d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on March 4?	BUY No	56¢	$1	111d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 4?	BUY No	0¢	$1	111d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on March 3?	BUY Yes	100¢	$391	112d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 2?	SELL No	99¢	$195	113d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 2?	BUY No	99¢	$389	113d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $377.79 · official $377.79 (match) · 12 history records