Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:39:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EE 0xee9e…44ee world 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 461d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate43%12W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 87% −$3
other 9% −$1
tech 2% $0
politics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.6% -9.0% 67% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.7% 50% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 16 -0.2% -9.7% 44% 0% -9.9%
all 28 -7.8% -16.5% 43% 4% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 4% -10.2%
10% -24.5% 0% -18.8%
15% -31.8% 0% -26.6%
20% -38.5% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses12 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage461d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 61¢ 48¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $57 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $26 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $26 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $25 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 26 $44 −$4 -9%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $25 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $25 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 25 $9 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $56 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $28 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 22 $32 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $28 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $27 +$1 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 20 $28 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $29 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 16 $2 $0 -3%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 27 $6 $0 +8%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 21 $1 $0 -23%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 20 $7 $0 +4%
Will Denmark finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 16 $7 $0 +4%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? May 16 $6 +$1 +12%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? Apr 14 $1 $0 -21%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Apr 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? Mar 21 $2 −$2 -92%
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 14-21? Mar 15 $12 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $29 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $29 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 9h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $26 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $26 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $26 19h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $29 21h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 66¢ $28 22h
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $25 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 91¢ $25 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $25 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $25 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $25 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $25 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $24 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $25 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $9 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $9 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $28 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $28 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 91¢ $27 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $28 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $4 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $5 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $7 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $19 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $32 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $32 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $7 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.44 · official $0.00 (match) · 97 history records