Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:21:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EE 0xeea7…198f crypto 1652 markets active 8h ago coverage 42d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$533 (-6%) realized −$524 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate82%1332W / 289L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day43.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$39
14 days−$7
30 days−$654
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$300
other 0% −$2
sports 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -30.8% -37.3% 44% 40% -32.7%
≤30d 714 -17.5% -25.3% 62% 55% -23.3%
≤90d 1621 -0.8% -10.2% 82% 57% -12.3%
all 1621 -0.8% -10.2% 82% 57% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 57% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 29% -20.7%
15% -26.6% 4% -28.4%
20% -33.8% 2% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$524
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses1332 / 289
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions33
Markets (closed)1621 / 1652
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day43.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 1621 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 69¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+78%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-46%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 29¢ 14¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-52%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? No 22¢ 26¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+17%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 30¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+45%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 31¢ 16¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? AN Jun 17 $2 +$1 +35%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $19 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $17 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 10 $16 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $27 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $28 −$28 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $53 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $23 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $22 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +122%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 09 $39 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 09 $35 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 09 $23 +$12 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 09 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 09 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 09 $17 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 09 $14 +$3 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 09 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17 BUY 69¢ $3 8h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 73¢ $2 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 21¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Sweden vs. Tunisia BUY 53¢ $2 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 24¢ $3 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 32¢ $1 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 6d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 6d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 6d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.00 · official $42.01 · 3500 history records